Maybe they went RB-heavy in the first few rounds and want to choose some high-floor options at wide receiver. 82 receptions for 693 yards and one touchdown in 2021. This would prevent us from getting a better idea of how age becomes a factor since we want to identify the wide receivers who were able to sustain some level of relevance throughout the years, Wide Receiver (WR) Age The age of the wide receiver at the beginning of the season, Total Number (#) of Wide Receivers (WRs) This is the total number of wide receivers that played at that age over the past 10 seasons, Total Number (#) of Wide Receivers (WRs) That Hit 100 Targets This column represents how many of the total wide receivers who played at that age hit 100 targets in that season, Percentage (%) Who Received 100 Targets The final column shows what percentage of the wide receivers at that age hit the 100-target benchmark. Only one of those players was over 30: Fitzgerald, who had basically reformed his career into that of a possession receiver, dropping from 8.1 yards per target and 13.9 YPC between ages 21 and 28, to 6.9 yards per target and 10.7 YPC over ages 29-37. He raised his grade from 79.4 as a rookie to 91.2 this past season, and his 88.8 grade over the last two seasons combined is higher than any other interior offensive lineman in the league over that span. Meanwhile once they hit 30 instead of a steep decline, we find a slight drop in fantasy production, but it quickly stabilizes similarly to wide receivers in their late 20s. ), surely you have noticed what Ive noticed. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. If this chart wont do it, nothing will. All three players can beat you deep, take a. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. Of the 69 wide receivers to play at age 29, weve watched 11.6 percent of them finish as a top-five fantasy option, the highest mark on the chart, putting the idea that wide receivers fall off at age 28 to bed. By, Kareem Elgazzar / USA Today Sports Images, Douglas DeFelice / USA Today Sports Images, Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today Sports Images, Vincent Carchietta / USA Today Sports Images, Robert Hanashiro / USA Today Sports Images, This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google. . If theres one reason to sell, it should be when a wide receiver is 30 or 31 years old and youre not going to be competing for two years. The average NFL career for an offensive lineman is about three-and-a-half years. Wide receivers dont necessarily have to be straight speed demons although it certainly doesnt hurt if theyre blazing fast. For more from Mike, check out hisarchiveand follow him@MikeTagliereNFL. As you can see from the chart above aging wide receivers isnt all rosy as we do see a steep decline in the quantity. The wide receiver must have had 50 or more targets to be included in the sample, as this will eliminate players who never get a shot at a young age, and those who fizzled out of the league after a few years. Whenever I hear such stereotypes, I want to do my best to set the record straight. What trends have we seen in the last 10 years of football? This doesnt look anything like the running back chart. Youve stumbled upon the correct article. Williams has very quietly played like one of the best safeties in the NFL over the last three seasons. This chart should help identify which players offer the most stability to fantasy rosters and what should be considered startable years of a wide receivers life. The first chart will include the wide receivers (WR) age, the average total fantasy points those wide receivers had at that age and the average points per game those wide receivers (PPG) had at that age. When you look at the company McLaurin is keeping when it comes to receiving grade as a rookie, its hard not to get excited about his prospects in 2020. Sherman reestablished himself as an elite cornerback for the 49ers last year, making his fifth career Pro Bowl. Slayton has four games of 20 or more fantasy points in his young career. Dont expect that to change on a defense that should only get better in 2020. The first- and second-year wide receivers in particular have great upside for their current ADP . Following that dip to only thirteen 1,000-yard wideouts in 2017, the number went back up to 18 in 2018, then 25 (nearly double the 2017 total) in 2019. Its easy to forget that wide receivers take time to develop after watching guys like A.J. *T.Y. Those players do not exist like they did 20, 10, or even five years ago. The peak age for an NFL wide receiver appears to land at ages 23 to 30, as 79.1 percent of the individual seasons fall within this range. Only five years ago, 26-percent of 1,000-yard receivers were at least 30 years old. We saw Browns after-the-catch ability in the Ole Miss offense, and that translated immediately to the NFL level. The idea is that if you give a 24-year-old and a 31-year-old the same number of targets, we want to know whos more likely to produce (its the 31-year-old). Blame it on injuries if you want to, the fact is that one OBJ case would be an exception; when there isnt a single 30+ OBJ in the league, it means that the rule says: You cant be a wide receiver over 30 anymore. In fact, their prime might be in-between 29 and 31. It gets really ugly after that, though, as just 4-of-68 wide receivers who played at age-33 and beyond have finished as a top-12 option. Those players were Jordy Nelson, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Fitzgerald, Mike Wallace, and DeSean Jackson, all names that most football fans are completely familiar with and they were playing just a decade after that Hines Ward/Reggie Wayne list that I mentioned earlier. And these are the good wide receivers. Overall, only a few wide receivers make it to age 35 let alone reach 100 targets at that age. Speaking to Giants fans during a question-and-answer telephone session at the NFL . Signed as a free agent by the Jaguars, Jones has 56 catches for 624 yards this season. Odell Beckham Jr - Turns 30 on November 5, 2022, Beckham will be a free agent in March. His most recent game with 90 or more yards was October 13, 2019. The percentage of accurate passes he received dropped from 61.4% in 2017 and 2018 to 50.8% in 2019. McLaurin entered the NFL landscape last season as an older rookie a third-round pick with limited expectations. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. McCaffrey is the ideal modern NFL running back. Big Ben is coming back in 2020 after missing most of 2019 to an elbow injury. Ill either debunk them as something someone made up one day that everyone believed to be true, or Ill prove theyre right. Moore has earned 62 targets on slant and in-routes since 2018 (fourth most in NFL), and his 94.9 receiving grade on those routes trails only, . Humphrey has been a playmaker regardless of where he has lined up, notching 47 forced incompletions over the last three seasons (fourth in the NFL behind Stephon Gilmore, Darius Slay and Kyle Fuller). And that is what has made him the most valuable player in the NFL over the last two seasons by nearly a full, Moore hasnt had the best of quarterback circumstances, given that he's had to deal with an injured, duo for much of 2019, but hes been able to produce despite those limitations, putting up a receiving grade over 80.0 across his first two NFL seasons. Ive accumulated a 13-year sample size with only one requirement to be included. Maybe they will. Probably the greatest wide receiver from 2013-2018 (ages 25-30), Brown averaged 114 receptions, 1,524 yards, and 11 touchdowns per season over those six seasons, all with the Steelers. He's posted over 100 tackles in consecutive seasons and was an All-Pro at age 30 last year, with 111 tackles, four sacks and 12 passes defensed. The only way to test whether this was true was to go through a large sample size of data. Again, age-33 is the end for a wide receivers WR1 days, as just two of 56 wide receivers were able to finish as a WR1. The Ravens have one of the most talented secondaries in the NFL, and Humphrey has been a big part of that group. Somehow Schwartz has never made a Pro Bowl in his eight NFL seasons, but he still deserves attention as one of the elite offensive linemen in football. Godwin was another easy choice here. Some fantasy owners want safety on their roster, even if they know the player may not offer WR1-type upside. He also appeared in his third Super Bowl. Like Jamal Adams, James is a versatile defender who can produce high-quality play in all phases of the game, as evidenced by his 80.0-plus grades in run defense, coverage and as a blitzer as a rookie. Tate is out of the NFL this year, so his career ended at 32. Who could have had a better argument as the next Chad Johnson or a mini-me version of Terrell Owens? 29: 505: 17.4: 36.1: 2: 0: 0: 0.0: 0: Billy Van Heusen: 14: 15 . Similarly, he came close to leading the league in interceptions one year, recording an impressive eight interceptions during the same period. Quickness is what a wide receiver will use more often than speed. When does a fantasy player stop producing like an elite option? Finally, Megatron had 88 catches for 1,214 yards when he was 30 and everyone assumed, Yeah, great, fineyouve only played nine seasons, SURELY you can play as long as Terrell Owens! Except that Calvin Johnson seemed to know what nobody else did not: that he was about to become extinct. Some, especially Jones and Hilton, look much worse. The average NFL career for a wide receiver is a little more than two years. With the speed Houston now has in its wide receiver room, that figures to be something they could feature heavily in 2020. Wide receivers dont decline after 28 years old from a fantasy perspective. Turning 29 has not been kind: Wide receivers showing rapid decline, Rams facilities given a D+ grade in NFLPA survey, In a recent NFLPA survey, the Rams facilities were given a D+ grade by the players. Wagner has been one of the constants on Seattle's defense since 2012 and has been an All-Pro in five of the last six seasons. When drafting a player in the early rounds, you want to ensure they can not only live up to their draft position, but hopefully exceed it. In August 2018, 29-year-old Julio Jones is the best receiver in the NFL. Beckham will likely spend next summer looking for the right fit for my talents instead of being subject to a bidding war for his services and that says A LOT. Bosa did things as a rookie that we havent seen since the PFF era began in 2006. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. He is just another player on the list of recent Saints draft hits. . However, the data says otherwise which means many people can find great value in both redraft and dynasty. The greatest wideout of his era, Brown is an exception to the rule because maybe he brought this decline on himself. If the Packers are willing to spend big to land one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, Tyler Lockett is a player they should consider making a trade offer for. It is also why a general manager drafts Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Jacob Harris, and Ben Skowronek in a two-year span, likely followed by more receiver picks in 2022 and 2023. Cooper Kupp is the best wide receiver in the NFL this year. Some will say that its skewed results due to the players who are still playing at that age are likely top-notch, but you mustnt forget that we removed all players with less than 50 targets from every age. For more from Mike, check out hisarchiveand follow him@MikeTagliereNFL. 1 receiver in Minnesota this year after the team traded Stefon Diggs. Dez spent his entire 20s with the Cowboys, peaking in 2014 when he was 26-years-old: 88 receptions, 1,320 yards, 16 TD. Interestingly, he did it at a high level in both the slot (63% of his routes in 2019) and out wide. You dont earn the highest overall grade in the NFL among wide receivers at 24 years old as Godwin did in 2019 and miss out on this list. . But maybe the next generation of 30+ receivers was just starting to come into their own in 2017. The next-closest were Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, Jones, Hilton, and Emmanuel Sanders. Naturally, only some of the best receivers in the game last into their thirties and. Green, draft JaMarr Chase, get younger, healthier, and richer, The Giants sign Kenny Golladay and the Ravens add Sammy Watkins, but this doesnt prevent either team from drafting a wide receiver in the first round this year; which was smart because Golladay and Watkins do seem a lot older than their counterparts and theyve got a ways to go before turning 30. This is the list of rookies with receiving grades of 80.0 or higher on 250 or more routes over the past 10 years: Odell Beckham Jr., Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Doug Baldwin and the two 2019 rookies A.J. Some will say that its skewed results due to the players who are still playing at that age are likely top-notch, but you mustnt forget that we removed all players with less than 50 targets from every age. Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals. | Not only does he produce the jaw-dropping, highlight-reel plays, but he is just about as good as anyone in the league at hitting the easy throws and limiting mistakes. We could start with those who were just named to the Pro Bowl: Combined with Kupp and Jefferson, thats eight solid receivers that virtually everyone can agree on. Depending on what you want/need out of them, they really dont decline until theyre 33 or 34 years old. Metcalf, and Justin Jefferson the last couple years, but this chart is your friendly reminder that wide receivers typically take time to develop. TL;DR: This article explores at which ages NFL wide receivers have their most productive seasons. There are sure to be outliers, but again, do not unload wide receivers who are 28- or 29-year-old studs. Brown and McLaurin. You don't currently have any notifications, Wide receivers may not decline as fast as some fantasy owners believe they do. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. The Miracle at the New Meadowlands. Adams does it all on the Jets defense. Updated September 08, 2021 Forget that wide receivers isnt all rosy as we do see a decline. You do n't currently have any notifications, wide receivers make it to 35... Own in 2017 and 2018 to 50.8 % in 2017 and 2018 to 50.8 % in 2017 and 2018 50.8... Last into their own in 2017 % in 2019 of recent Saints draft hits from Mike, out. 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As some fantasy owners believe they do pick with limited expectations year after the team traded Stefon Diggs missing. Might be in-between 29 and 31 look much worse a third-round pick with limited expectations of his era Brown. Reach 100 targets at that age or 34 years old from a fantasy player stop like! Speed demons although it certainly doesnt hurt if theyre blazing fast best receiver in Minnesota this year after the traded...
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